How is value calculated?
Value is the amount of points that you can expect to gain over your competition by selecting a team
to advance to a particular round. It is calculated as (Win %)*(1-Pick %)*(Standard Points Scored
for that round). Refer to the below example:
The value of choosing Michigan to advance to the Final Four, assuming that sportsbooks offer
+1000 odds and 6% of Yahoo brackets predict Michigan’s advancement, can be calculated as follows:
Implied Probability: 9.09%
Percentage Picked: 6.0%
Points for Correct Pick: 8
Calculation:
.0909*(1-.06)*8 = 0.68
In this scenario, advancing Michigan to the Final Four in your bracket provides a 0.68 point
advantage over the field. However, as this metric naturally skews values higher as Win % and
Pick % approach 50%, the result of the initial calculation is adjusted by weighting it
according to the absolute difference between Win % and Pick %. This normalization ensures
a more balanced value metric and prevents distortions. As a result, the values displayed on
the main page may differ slightly from the direct outcome of the above formula.
How is win % and pick % determined?
Our win probability (Win %) data is derived from online sportsbooks that establish odds for each
team's likelihood of advancing to a given round. These odds are then converted into a 0-100% win
probability. The percentage of brackets that picked a team to advance to a particular round (Pick %)
is sourced from Yahoo's pick distribution page, found
here.
How is the tournament page determined?
It's simple: The team with the highest value advances — but in reverse order. We start by identifying the team with the highest overall value to win the tournament and select them as the champion. From there, we work backward through each round. This approach prevents advancing lower-seeded teams in scenarios where that team (e.g., a 15-seed) initially appears to have a better value than a higher-seeded team (e.g., a 2-seed), unless their value remains strong in later rounds. This is why analyzing the full stats alongside our bracket is crucial. The stats reveal where upsets are likely to occur and whether a team advanced due to consistently high values or simply because of favorable matchups. See full stats here: View Full Stats.
How can I learn more?
For all questions, concerns, praise, and tournament gossip, send an email to: [email protected]