Website Logo

2025 NCAA Tournament

Value Model - Full Stats ℹ️ For information on how value is calculated, refer here.

View Bracket

Best Values in Each Round ℹ️ Highlights the highest value plays for each round of the tournament, identifying teams with the best potential returns.

Team Value
First Round UNC 0.41
Second Round Illinois 0.63
Sweet Sixteen Texas Tech 1.09
Elite Eight Auburn 1.73
Final Four Auburn 3.67
Semis Auburn 4.64

Regional Strength Index ℹ️ This index assesses the strength of schedule for each region. The Overall metric represents the combined odds of all teams in that region winning the tournament. The Top 3 metric assesses how much of that strength is concentrated in that region's top 3 seeds. Higher values indicate a more dominant region with lower probability of upsets.

Region Overall Top 3
East 0.2764 0.6963
West 0.2628 0.7087
South 0.2510 0.7057
Midwest 0.2103 0.6551

Bust Potential ℹ️ Odds for each 1-3 seed to advance to the Sweet Sixteen or beyond.

Team Seed Win %
Kentucky 3 43.51%
Wisconsin 3 44.17%
Iowa St. 3 49.09%
St. John's 2 55.93%
Texas Tech 3 56.85%
Michigan St. 2 57.10%

Sleeper Potential ℹ️ Odds for each 11-16 seed to advance to the Sweet Sixteen or beyond.

Team Seed Win %
UNC 11 24.75%
VCU 11 20.08%
UCSD 12 18.75%
Colorado St. 12 18.42%
Xavier 11 14.50%
Yale 13 12.32%
Team Seed R1 Pick % R1 Win % R1 Value R2 Pick % R2 Win % R2 Value R3 Pick % R3 Win % R3 Value R4 Pick % R4 Win % R4 Value R5 Pick % R5 Win % R5 Value R6 Pick % R6 Win % R6 Value Total Value Region
Auburn 1 99.79% 95.78% -0.01 89.11% 71.88% 0.09 74.42% 53.88% 0.39 52.28% 47.32% 1.73 23.57% 28.66% 3.67 11.14% 15.36% 4.64 10.51 South
Alabama St. 16 0.21% 4.22% -0.02 0.09% 0.88% -0.12 0.04% 0.53% -0.26 0.03% 0.17% -0.54 0.02% 0.15% -1.09 0.01% 0.08% -2.21 -4.24 South
Louisville 8 55.93% 57.21% 0.25 6.59% 16.14% 0.34 3.79% 11.36% 0.50 1.85% 3.64% 0.31 0.39% 1.89% 0.35 0.15% 0.76% 0.28 2.03 South
Creighton 9 44.07% 42.79% 0.24 4.21% 11.10% 0.24 1.84% 8.37% 0.38 0.70% 2.70% 0.25 0.24% 1.52% 0.28 0.11% 0.59% 0.22 1.61 South
Michigan 5 77.65% 56.35% 0.08 50.05% 29.74% 0.22 11.52% 7.58% 0.24 4.79% 4.19% 0.31 2.03% 1.68% 0.25 0.97% 1.01% 0.32 1.42 South
UCSD 12 22.35% 43.65% 0.38 9.53% 18.75% 0.38 1.08% 6.12% 0.28 0.44% 1.18% 0.11 0.18% 0.85% 0.16 0.08% 0.15% 0.05 1.36 South
Texas A&M 4 77.21% 74.41% 0.16 35.32% 39.20% 0.52 6.43% 10.61% 0.43 2.64% 4.92% 0.42 0.84% 2.15% 0.38 0.30% 0.76% 0.27 2.18 South
Yale 13 22.79% 25.59% 0.20 5.11% 12.32% 0.26 0.88% 1.56% 0.07 0.47% 0.33% 0.02 0.29% 0.15% 0.02 0.18% 0.08% 0.02 0.59 South
Ole Miss 6 67.78% 45.73% 0.10 20.50% 22.15% 0.36 5.72% 12.82% 0.54 1.19% 3.99% 0.36 0.55% 1.17% 0.21 0.12% 0.48% 0.18 1.75 South
UNC 11 32.22% 54.27% 0.41 9.96% 24.75% 0.50 1.85% 7.69% 0.35 0.56% 3.64% 0.34 0.25% 1.17% 0.22 0.16% 0.45% 0.16 1.98 South
Iowa St. 3 94.00% 89.89% 0.05 67.83% 49.09% 0.24 21.72% 24.04% 0.77 6.22% 9.30% 0.75 2.00% 2.98% 0.50 0.61% 1.67% 0.60 2.91 South
Lipscomb 14 6.00% 10.11% 0.10 1.71% 4.01% 0.09 0.42% 0.95% 0.04 0.15% 0.24% 0.02 0.06% 0.15% 0.03 0.03% 0.08% 0.03 0.31 South
Marquette 7 64.55% 60.92% 0.21 11.15% 24.67% 0.49 4.65% 12.82% 0.55 1.05% 2.89% 0.26 0.34% 1.09% 0.20 0.13% 0.38% 0.14 1.85 South
New Mexico 10 35.45% 39.08% 0.26 3.63% 14.80% 0.33 1.21% 8.10% 0.38 0.31% 1.37% 0.13 0.11% 0.51% 0.09 0.05% 0.22% 0.08 1.27 South
Michigan St. 2 97.06% 92.58% 0.02 84.08% 57.10% 0.07 63.90% 32.06% 0.21 27.12% 13.95% 0.60 10.25% 4.84% 0.52 4.21% 2.95% 0.83 2.25 South
Bryant 15 2.94% 7.42% 0.01 1.15% 3.42% -0.06 0.53% 1.51% -0.21 0.18% 0.17% -0.55 0.07% 0.15% -1.09 0.03% 0.08% -2.21 -4.11 South
Florida 1 98.32% 96.26% 0.01 87.35% 79.82% 0.17 77.60% 57.85% 0.36 58.76% 46.20% 1.32 39.06% 26.68% 2.21 20.52% 16.00% 3.78 7.85 West
Norfolk St. 16 1.68% 3.74% -0.03 0.70% 0.45% -0.13 0.35% 0.54% -0.26 0.19% 0.17% -0.55 0.09% 0.15% -1.09 0.04% 0.08% -2.21 -4.27 West
UConn 8 71.25% 66.90% 0.18 9.62% 12.83% 0.24 6.23% 8.63% 0.34 2.58% 3.96% 0.33 1.35% 1.52% 0.24 0.69% 0.95% 0.32 1.65 West
Oklahoma 9 28.75% 33.10% 0.24 2.34% 6.91% 0.15 1.09% 5.12% 0.23 0.43% 1.03% 0.09 0.18% 0.43% 0.08 0.07% 0.13% 0.04 0.83 West
Memphis 5 67.95% 46.75% 0.11 29.47% 13.16% 0.12 4.00% 3.90% 0.15 1.46% 1.48% 0.12 0.53% 0.85% 0.15 0.19% 0.22% 0.07 0.72 West
Colorado St. 12 32.05% 53.25% 0.40 7.70% 18.42% 0.38 0.75% 5.12% 0.24 0.29% 1.26% 0.12 0.12% 0.51% 0.09 0.06% 0.19% 0.07 1.30 West
Maryland 4 87.50% 82.23% 0.09 58.89% 59.21% 0.49 9.43% 17.82% 0.71 4.29% 9.78% 0.84 1.58% 5.95% 1.08 0.64% 1.67% 0.60 3.81 West
Grand Canyon 13 12.50% 17.77% 0.17 3.93% 9.21% 0.20 0.55% 1.01% 0.04 0.22% 0.41% 0.04 0.09% 0.31% 0.06 0.04% 0.10% 0.03 0.54 West
Missouri 6 58.70% 69.08% 0.31 18.40% 27.45% 0.48 5.32% 13.42% 0.57 0.94% 3.62% 0.33 0.33% 1.52% 0.28 0.16% 0.63% 0.23 2.20 West
Drake 11 41.30% 30.92% 0.16 11.92% 12.01% 0.21 2.21% 5.03% 0.22 0.49% 0.91% 0.08 0.20% 0.51% 0.09 0.07% 0.15% 0.05 0.81 West
Texas Tech 3 94.32% 90.83% 0.04 68.02% 56.85% 0.32 25.75% 34.27% 1.09 6.89% 12.79% 1.05 2.40% 5.95% 1.04 0.67% 2.13% 0.77 4.31 West
UNC Wilmington 14 5.68% 9.17% 0.09 1.66% 3.69% 0.08 0.44% 0.80% 0.03 0.17% 0.33% 0.03 0.07% 0.15% 0.03 0.03% 0.08% 0.03 0.29 West
Kansas 7 64.59% 65.75% 0.24 19.25% 28.66% 0.50 9.73% 12.39% 0.47 3.19% 4.38% 0.36 1.69% 1.27% 0.19 0.91% 0.84% 0.26 2.02 West
Arkansas 10 35.41% 34.25% 0.22 6.00% 13.67% 0.29 2.06% 7.32% 0.33 0.48% 1.63% 0.15 0.20% 0.85% 0.16 0.10% 0.38% 0.14 1.29 West
St. John's 2 96.35% 93.57% 0.03 73.62% 55.93% 0.22 53.97% 25.98% 0.25 19.41% 11.88% 0.65 10.80% 4.07% 0.37 4.78% 2.65% 0.67 2.19 West
Omaha 15 3.65% 6.43% -0.00 1.13% 1.74% -0.10 0.51% 0.80% -0.25 0.20% 0.17% -0.55 0.09% 0.15% -1.09 0.04% 0.08% -2.21 -4.20 West
Duke 1 98.62% 97.28% 0.01 94.06% 79.30% 0.04 82.92% 59.92% 0.23 66.72% 45.62% 0.88 50.77% 28.69% 1.55 30.68% 18.29% 3.26 5.97 East
Mount St. Mary's 16 1.38% 2.72% -0.04 0.63% 0.87% -0.12 0.32% 0.54% -0.26 0.18% 0.17% -0.55 0.09% 0.08% -1.11 0.04% 0.08% -2.21 -4.29 East
Mississippi St. 8 38.40% 52.17% 0.35 1.84% 8.81% 0.20 0.75% 8.13% 0.38 0.27% 1.82% 0.17 0.10% 0.81% 0.15 0.05% 0.31% 0.11 1.36 East
Baylor 9 61.60% 47.83% 0.16 3.47% 11.01% 0.24 1.35% 7.39% 0.34 0.60% 2.32% 0.21 0.23% 1.34% 0.25 0.10% 0.26% 0.09 1.29 East
Oregon 5 82.41% 72.58% 0.11 34.12% 24.95% 0.29 4.82% 5.81% 0.23 1.93% 3.64% 0.31 0.78% 0.62% 0.09 0.36% 0.42% 0.14 1.17 East
Liberty 12 17.59% 27.42% 0.25 4.17% 11.64% 0.25 0.50% 2.62% 0.12 0.21% 0.42% 0.04 0.09% 0.23% 0.04 0.04% 0.10% 0.03 0.73 East
Arizona 4 88.73% 89.34% 0.10 58.08% 56.13% 0.46 8.84% 14.78% 0.59 3.88% 7.97% 0.68 1.54% 3.14% 0.55 0.68% 1.51% 0.53 2.91 East
Akron 13 11.27% 10.66% 0.09 3.63% 7.28% 0.15 0.50% 0.81% 0.03 0.19% 0.42% 0.04 0.09% 0.27% 0.05 0.05% 0.10% 0.03 0.39 East
BYU 6 65.49% 56.35% 0.18 24.77% 31.55% 0.50 7.88% 15.35% 0.63 1.04% 5.23% 0.48 0.35% 1.99% 0.37 0.16% 0.84% 0.31 2.47 East
VCU 11 34.51% 43.65% 0.30 8.47% 20.08% 0.41 1.55% 8.06% 0.37 0.29% 2.04% 0.19 0.11% 0.90% 0.17 0.06% 0.19% 0.07 1.51 East
Wisconsin 3 94.51% 91.97% 0.05 65.11% 44.17% 0.22 23.26% 20.15% 0.59 5.63% 8.80% 0.72 2.37% 4.30% 0.73 1.00% 1.26% 0.42 2.73 East
Montana 14 5.49% 8.03% 0.08 1.65% 4.21% 0.09 0.46% 0.80% 0.03 0.17% 0.42% 0.04 0.07% 0.16% 0.03 0.03% 0.08% 0.03 0.30 East
St. Mary's 7 57.81% 63.09% 0.28 9.21% 25.22% 0.52 3.37% 13.43% 0.60 0.61% 4.40% 0.41 0.21% 1.78% 0.33 0.08% 0.59% 0.22 2.36 East
Vanderbilt 10 42.19% 36.91% 0.20 5.04% 11.66% 0.25 1.77% 5.04% 0.22 0.35% 1.37% 0.13 0.14% 0.54% 0.10 0.06% 0.19% 0.07 0.97 East
Alabama 2 97.14% 94.91% 0.02 84.69% 62.20% 0.10 61.23% 36.64% 0.37 17.73% 15.21% 0.96 8.21% 8.61% 1.28 3.06% 3.34% 1.05 3.78 East
Robert Morris 15 2.86% 5.09% -0.02 1.06% 0.92% -0.12 0.47% 0.53% -0.26 0.18% 0.17% -0.55 0.07% 0.16% -1.09 0.03% 0.08% -2.21 -4.25 East
Houston 1 98.16% 97.28% 0.02 81.26% 70.33% 0.22 69.14% 48.55% 0.43 46.53% 40.82% 1.65 17.19% 21.80% 3.04 8.75% 10.97% 3.35 8.71 Midwest
SIU 16 1.84% 2.72% -0.04 0.69% 0.90% -0.12 0.35% 0.54% -0.26 0.19% 0.17% -0.55 0.09% 0.16% -1.09 0.04% 0.08% -2.21 -4.27 Midwest
Gonzaga 8 72.98% 71.36% 0.19 13.04% 20.55% 0.39 7.48% 15.63% 0.64 3.12% 7.97% 0.70 1.01% 3.89% 0.71 0.52% 1.51% 0.54 3.17 Midwest
Georgia 9 27.02% 28.64% 0.21 5.01% 8.22% 0.17 2.20% 7.46% 0.33 0.94% 2.32% 0.21 0.54% 1.60% 0.29 0.39% 0.19% 0.05 1.26 Midwest
Clemson 5 85.27% 74.41% 0.09 51.44% 38.83% 0.33 10.44% 10.94% 0.40 3.89% 5.58% 0.46 1.06% 1.99% 0.35 0.38% 0.95% 0.34 1.97 Midwest
McNeese St. 12 14.73% 25.59% 0.24 5.03% 11.65% 0.25 0.59% 5.13% 0.24 0.22% 0.92% 0.08 0.09% 0.41% 0.08 0.04% 0.08% 0.03 0.92 Midwest
Purdue 4 84.88% 75.72% 0.10 40.13% 42.36% 0.52 9.32% 10.94% 0.41 3.23% 5.98% 0.51 1.06% 1.78% 0.30 0.49% 0.69% 0.23 2.07 Midwest
High Point 13 15.12% 24.28% 0.22 3.39% 7.17% 0.15 0.50% 0.81% 0.03 0.20% 0.55% 0.05 0.08% 0.16% 0.03 0.04% 0.08% 0.03 0.51 Midwest
Illinois 6 76.71% 61.64% 0.11 24.44% 37.84% 0.63 6.89% 15.00% 0.62 1.63% 5.23% 0.47 0.48% 1.60% 0.29 0.23% 0.95% 0.35 2.47 Midwest
Xavier 11 23.29% 38.36% 0.32 5.64% 14.50% 0.31 0.95% 5.39% 0.25 0.28% 1.64% 0.15 0.11% 0.33% 0.06 0.06% 0.13% 0.05 1.14 Midwest
Kentucky 3 95.05% 84.65% 0.02 68.41% 43.51% 0.18 24.56% 18.75% 0.52 11.25% 7.61% 0.48 3.95% 2.64% 0.36 1.61% 1.26% 0.37 1.93 Midwest
Troy 14 4.95% 15.35% 0.17 1.50% 4.14% 0.09 0.42% 0.85% 0.04 0.17% 0.33% 0.03 0.07% 0.16% 0.03 0.03% 0.08% 0.03 0.39 Midwest
UCLA 7 68.35% 66.90% 0.21 12.20% 21.67% 0.42 4.49% 13.27% 0.58 1.75% 2.89% 0.25 0.56% 1.15% 0.20 0.31% 0.51% 0.17 1.83 Midwest
Utah St. 10 31.65% 33.10% 0.23 2.79% 10.11% 0.23 0.83% 2.78% 0.13 0.24% 0.75% 0.07 0.09% 0.33% 0.06 0.04% 0.13% 0.05 0.77 Midwest
Tennessee 2 96.95% 93.11% 0.02 83.91% 66.43% 0.14 61.33% 43.11% 0.52 26.16% 17.08% 0.86 8.30% 8.18% 1.20 3.25% 3.34% 1.04 3.78 Midwest
Wofford 15 3.05% 6.89% 0.00 1.10% 1.78% -0.10 0.53% 0.85% -0.24 0.20% 0.17% -0.55 0.10% 0.16% -1.09 0.04% 0.08% -2.21 -4.19 Midwest