Our Purpose
To make projecting fantasy football outcomes as accurate as possible. Helping you win your season-long, DFS,
or Bestball leagues by setting the most advantageous lineups available.
Our Methods
Player projections are built off of the player prop bets sourced from various online sportsbooks.
Specific props (e.g. Pass Yards, Rush Yards, etc.) simply take the O/U amount as that often
represents an accurate median amount for what the sportsbook project for that player's output.
This is because the sportsbooks have usually decided on a player prop amount that nets them
the same amount of money regardless of the outcome. This can be evidenced by the fact that the
lines on these props are often very close to even (e.g. +105/-115). Other props (e.g. Pass TDs,
Rush TDs, Interceptions, etc.) are more complex as the Sportbooks tend to rely more on the odds
themselves in order to net themselves equal amounts on either side of the bet. For these bets
you'll typically see the same values across player (e.g. O/U 1.5 Pass TDs or O/U .5 Interceptions
thrown), but with more dramatic odds based on the implied liklihood of each outcome (e.g. the
Over may be +170 while the Under is -220). This presents an even more difficult scenario when
we consider that these odds are not linear and the longer the odds become the more Sportsbook
tend to take a larger cut (VIG). To account for this, we use a devigging method known as the
Power Method to calculate the implied probability of various outcomes. Refer to the below example:
Josh Allen has the following Pass TDs odds:
1 or more: -550
2 or more: -120
3 or more: +340
This can also be represented in the decimal odds format as follows:
1 or more: 1.18
2 or more: 2
3 or more: 5.25
In order to calculate the implied odds of each we divide 1 by the longest odds:
1/5.25 = .1905 or a 19.05% likelihood
We then divide the next longest odds and subtract the previous odds (as the odds of 2+ Pass TDs
also include the possibility of 3+ Pass Tds. We subtract the previous odds to obtain the likelihood
of only throwing 2 Pass TDs.):
1/2 - .1905 = .3095 or a 30.95% likelihood
Do the same for the final odds:
1/1.18 - .1905 - .3095 = .3475 or 34.75% likelihood
Finally, calculate the remaining odds of throwing 0 Pass TDs:
1 - .1905 - .3095 - .3475 = 15.25% likelihood
We can then calculate the Projected Fantasy Points by multiplying each outcome by its implied
likelihood, taking the sum, and multiplying it by your league settings. The example below assumes
4 pts per Pass TD:
(3*.1905 + 2*.3095 + 1*.3475 + 0*.1525) = 6.15 points.
Once all individual player props are calculated in this manner, the unique scoring settings for
your league are sourced and aggregated to determine the overall projections by player.
We additionally offer the ability to view player projections by their implied floors and ceilings based on the sportsbooks alternative player props for each player.
Contact
For all questions, concerns, praise, and league gossip, send an email to: [email protected]